Sahel's Terror Surge: A Deep Dive
By Darius Spearman (africanelements)
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Terrorism's Growing Threat in the Sahel
The Sahel region of Africa is facing a serious and growing threat from terrorist groups. These groups are becoming more skilled and spreading their influence, causing major concerns for security across the continent and beyond. The head of the UN Office for West Africa and the Sahel (UNOWAS), Leonardo Santos Simão, recently told the Security Council that terrorism in the region has “surged in scale, complexity and sophistication, including through the use of drones, alternative internet communication, and increasing collusion with transnational organized crime” (africanews.com).
This means that these groups are not only using more advanced tools like drones but are also working with criminal organizations. The connection between terrorism and organized crime is a major challenge, threatening to make the region even more unstable (securitycouncilreport.org). Furthermore, the threat of terrorism has been moving southward towards countries along the coast, raising alarms about potential spillover into areas that were once safe (securitycouncilreport.org). This expansion highlights the urgent need for a stronger, more unified response to protect communities and prevent further destabilization.
Sahel: A Global Hotspot for Insurgency
The Sahel has tragically become a global center for Islamist insurgency. A significant portion of terrorism-related deaths worldwide now happen in this region. For instance, the Institute for Economics & Peace reported last year that 51 percent of all terrorism deaths globally occurred in the Sahel (washingtonpost.com). This alarming statistic shows the intense and widespread nature of the conflict.
Groups like JNIM (Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal-Muslimin) and the Islamic State-Sahel Province have turned the region into a major hub for Islamist insurgency (washingtonpost.com). These groups are not only active but are also expanding their control. UN experts reported on July 30th that extremist groups in West Africa, such as the al-Qaida-linked JNIM, and East Africa's al-Qaida-linked al-Shabaab, have continued to take over more territory (africanews.com). This expansion is particularly noticeable in the Sahel, where JNIM operates “with relative freedom” in northern Mali and most of Burkina Faso (africanews.com). Héni Nsaibia, a senior analyst for the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data project, described JNIM's growth as “substantial — even exponential” (washingtonpost.com). This rapid growth underscores the urgent need for effective counter-terrorism strategies.
Understanding the Rise of Terrorist Groups
The growth of terrorist groups in Africa is partly linked to the losses suffered by the Islamic State in the Middle East. Counterterrorism efforts there have pushed these groups to seek new territories and opportunities. Experts who monitor sanctions against these groups suggest that their expansion in Africa is a direct result of the Islamic State's setbacks in the Middle East (africanews.com). This shift highlights how global counterterrorism pressures can lead to new challenges in other regions.
The Sahel region, unfortunately, provides fertile ground for these groups due to a combination of factors. These include poor governance, a lack of development, and the worsening effects of climate change. These issues create an environment where recruitment is easier and instability thrives (visionofhumanity.org). The merger of organized crime and terrorism in the Sahel, with groups forming complex alliances, further fuels the persistence of terrorist activities (visionofhumanity.org). Terrorist organizations often work with criminal groups, offering protection for illegal trade in drugs, human trafficking, and precious metals, which generates significant income for them (visionofhumanity.org). The surge in kidnappings since 2017, with incidents rising from 78 to over 1,000 in 2023, further contributes to the financial resources of these groups (visionofhumanity.org). This complex web of crime and terror makes the fight against these groups even more challenging.
The Humanitarian Crisis and Funding Gaps
The surge in terrorism in the Sahel has created a severe humanitarian crisis. Millions of people are at risk, facing displacement, violence, and limited access to basic services. Despite the urgent need, funding for humanitarian aid remains critically low. Simão pointed out that “only 14 percent of funding for the 2025 Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan for the Sahel region has been received – resource mobilization is urgently needed to save the lives of millions of people at risk” (africanews.com). This lack of funding directly impacts the ability to provide life-saving assistance to those most affected by the conflict.
The ongoing violence also leads to significant civilian casualties and widespread displacement. For example, militant Islamist violence in Africa continues to cause deaths, with groups like Boko Haram and ISWA fighting each other and militaries in the Lake Chad region (africacenter.org). In northwest Nigeria, 3,600 people were kidnapped and many killed in 2023, highlighting the widespread violence and criminality affecting civilians (africacenter.org). These numbers paint a grim picture of the human cost of terrorism and underscore the critical need for increased international support and resources.
2025 Sahel Humanitarian Funding Status
Challenges in Counter-Terrorism Efforts
Diplomatic tensions between regional groups complicate the fight against terrorism in the Sahel. Experts suggest that preventing the spread of terrorism requires rebuilding counterterrorism relationships between the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) and their southern neighbors in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) (adf-magazine.com). The AES, which includes Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, broke away from ECOWAS in January 2025 after a series of coups driven by the rise in violent extremism (adf-magazine.com).
Bakary Sambe, regional director of the Sahel-based Timbuktu Institute, noted that “The current diplomatic tension between AES and ECOWAS countries makes it increasingly difficult to exchange intelligence and conduct joint patrols” (adf-magazine.com). This lack of cooperation weakens the overall response to terrorism. The chaos in the region has also allowed military officers to seize power in coups, promising to break with Western influence and restore peace. However, in most of these countries, the security situation has only worsened (washingtonpost.com). This political instability creates an environment that terrorist groups can easily exploit.
The Role of External Actors and Shifting Alliances
The security landscape in the Sahel is also being reshaped by the withdrawal of Western military assistance and the involvement of new security partners, such as Russia’s Wagner group. While the full effects of these shifts are still unfolding, the region continues to face severe instability and persistent militant activity. For example, Mali recorded 604 deaths from 201 attacks in 2024, despite a 21 percent reduction in terrorism-related fatalities (visionofhumanity.org). This indicates that security challenges remain significant.
JNIM continues to be a major threat in Mali, exploiting the country’s political instability following the 2021 coup and delays in returning to civilian rule (visionofhumanity.org). The Sahel region is identified as the hardest-hit by terrorism worldwide, according to the Global Terrorism Index 2025 (africanews.com). These dynamics highlight the complex interplay of internal governance issues and external security partnerships, all of which impact the effectiveness of counter-terrorism efforts.
Global Terrorism Deaths in the Sahel
The Interplay of Crime and Terror
The growing link between terrorism and maritime crime presents another layer of complexity to the security challenges in the Sahel. While the exact operational details of how terrorist groups exploit maritime routes are not fully clear, this connection threatens to further destabilize the region (securitycouncilreport.org). Maritime crime can include piracy, illegal fishing, and smuggling, all of which can provide funding and logistical support to terrorist organizations. This alliance allows terrorist groups to diversify their income streams and expand their reach, making them even more formidable.
The use of “alternative internet communication” by terrorist groups also adds to their sophistication (africanews.com). This could refer to encrypted messaging apps, dark web platforms, or other secure communication methods that allow them to plan attacks, recruit members, and coordinate activities without easy detection. This technological advancement makes it harder for security forces to track and disrupt their operations. The combination of advanced communication, sophisticated weaponry like drones, and alliances with organized crime makes these groups a significant and evolving threat.
Addressing Root Causes and Future Strategies
To effectively combat terrorism in the Sahel, it is crucial to address the underlying socio-economic drivers that fuel instability. These include poor governance, underdevelopment, and the impacts of climate change. The fact that terrorist groups exploit Mali's political instability and delays in returning to civilian rule underscores the importance of good governance and political stability (visionofhumanity.org). Without addressing these root causes, military solutions alone will not be enough to achieve lasting peace.
Nigeria’s delegate highlighted that counter-terrorism capabilities in most African countries suffer from critical gaps, and called for the international community to unite to confront terrorism and ensure a safer and more secure Africa (press.un.org). Council members are concerned about how to support regional counter-terrorism security mechanisms, such as the Accra Initiative and the Multinational Joint Task Force in the Lake Chad basin (securitycouncil.org). These mechanisms are vital for regional cooperation and intelligence sharing. However, their effectiveness is often hampered by a lack of resources and political will. A senior official urged the Security Council to scale up support within regional frameworks due to the growing strength of terrorist groups (press.un.org). This call for increased support emphasizes the need for a comprehensive approach that combines security measures with efforts to promote development, good governance, and community engagement.
Socio-Economic Drivers of Terrorism in the Sahel
Weak government institutions and lack of effective rule of law create vacuums that terrorist groups exploit.
Poverty, lack of education, and limited economic opportunities make individuals vulnerable to recruitment.
Environmental degradation and resource scarcity exacerbate conflicts over land and water, fueling instability.
Alliances between terrorist groups and criminal networks provide funding through illicit trade and kidnappings.
Coups and delays in democratic transitions create fertile ground for extremist groups to expand their influence.
The Path Forward: Collaboration and Comprehensive Solutions
The situation in the Sahel demands a multi-faceted approach that goes beyond military intervention. While security operations are necessary to counter immediate threats, long-term stability requires addressing the deep-seated issues that allow terrorism to flourish. This includes investing in development, strengthening governance, and building resilience in communities affected by conflict and climate change. Somalia’s Minister for Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, Ahmed Moallim Fiqi, stated that his country liberated half of the territory that was under the control of Al-Shabaab, proving that terrorism does not recognize national borders and multilateral cooperation is necessary (press.un.org). This demonstrates that progress is possible with concerted effort and international collaboration.
The international community must also prioritize humanitarian aid and ensure that funding gaps are closed. Saving lives and providing essential services are not only moral imperatives but also crucial for building trust and stability in affected regions. Furthermore, fostering dialogue and cooperation between regional blocs like AES and ECOWAS is essential to overcoming diplomatic tensions that hinder effective counter-terrorism efforts. By working together, sharing intelligence, and coordinating operations, African nations, with the support of the international community, can build a more secure and prosperous future for the Sahel. The fight against terrorism is a shared responsibility that requires sustained commitment and a comprehensive strategy.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Darius Spearman has been a professor of Black Studies at San Diego City College since 2007. He is the author of several books, including Between The Color Lines: A History of African Americans on the California Frontier Through 1890. You can visit Darius online at africanelements.org.
