African Peace Agreements & Armed Groups in 2025

By Darius Spearman (africanelements)

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Peace in parts of Africa remains a fragile hope in 2025. Conflicts continue to simmer, causing immense suffering for our brothers and sisters on the ground. However, there are ongoing efforts to silence the guns. Recent developments show both glimmers of progress and major setbacks. Let’s look at the complex picture of recent peace agreements between African governments and armed groups.

Central African Republic Peace Deal: A Fragile Recommitment

In the Central African Republic (CAR), there’s been a potentially positive turn. Two significant armed groups, the Return, Reclamation and Rehabilitation (3R) and Unité pour la Paix en Centrafrique (UPC), have rejoined a key peace agreement (Africanews). They had previously stepped away from the 2019 Political Agreement on Peace and Reconciliation. Their return offers a fragile path forward.

The United Nations remains heavily involved. UN Special Representative Valentine Rugwabiza stressed that this 2019 agreement is really the only game in town for lasting peace (Africanews). Consequently, the UN peacekeeping mission, MINUSCA, is keeping a close eye on whether everyone sticks to the deal. Stability, however, is threatened by outside forces. Wagner Group mercenaries from Russia and Rwandan troops have backed the CAR government since 2021. Reports of human rights abuses linked to Wagner, however, cast a dark shadow over security efforts (Council on Foreign Relations).

Political tensions further complicate the situation. A referendum back in July 2023 controversially removed presidential term limits. This move sparked outrage from opposition parties, who cried foul, alleging electoral rigging (Council on Foreign Relations). These underlying political fractures add another layer of difficulty to achieving genuine peace and stability for the people of CAR.

DRC-Rwanda Conflict Updates: M23 Crisis Deepens

The situation in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) took a devastating turn in early 2025. The M23 rebel group captured the major city of Goma in January (Amani Africa). This offensive created a massive humanitarian crisis. UN reports indicate that the fighting displaced around 178,000 people and tragically resulted in 3,000 deaths.

The fall of Goma forced emergency actions. The UN peacekeeping mission, MONUSCO, had to evacuate over 300 disarmed Congolese security forces and their families (Africanews). They were moved from Goma to the capital, Kinshasa, with help from the Red Cross. Meanwhile, accusations fly regarding external support for M23. Rwanda firmly denies direct involvement. However, UN and Crisis Group analyses suggest Rwanda deployed between 3,000 and 4,000 troops to back the rebels (Institute for the Study of War, Crisis Group). This alleged interference significantly complicates peace efforts.

Regional bodies scrambled to respond. The East African Community (EAC) and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) held a joint summit in Tanzania in February 2025 (Amani Africa). Importantly, they agreed to merge two separate peace initiatives, the Nairobi and Luanda processes. This unified approach aims to tackle the escalating crisis more effectively. The M23 rebel group timeline shows periods of dormancy and resurgence, making sustained peace incredibly challenging.

Great Lakes Tensions Cloud Peace Prospects

The crisis in eastern DRC is deeply tangled with regional rivalries. Deep mistrust exists between Kinshasa and Kigali. The DRC government accuses Rwanda of using the threat of FDLR rebels (a group linked to the Rwandan genocide) as an excuse to occupy its eastern territory (Crisis Group). Conversely, Rwanda maintains that the M23 situation is purely an internal DRC problem.

These tensions have recently escalated dramatically. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa publicly accused Rwanda of killing 14 South African soldiers deployed in the DRC (Crisis Group). Such accusations raise diplomatic stakes significantly. Additionally, Uganda is also implicated, though perhaps less directly than Rwanda. Crisis Group interviews suggest Uganda provides tacit support to M23 rebels through refugee camps on its territory (Crisis Group). This complex web of regional involvement makes finding a straightforward solution extremely difficult.

The international community is watching closely. The UN Security Council has drafted a resolution demanding M23 pull back from Goma (Amani Africa). Crucially, the draft also calls on Rwanda to stop supporting the rebels. This move signals potential international pressure, possibly including sanctions, if the situation doesn’t improve. For the diaspora watching, these geopolitical chess moves directly impact the lives and safety of family and communities back home.

African Peace Processes 2025: Enforcement vs. Dialogue in AU Missions

How best to achieve peace is a major debate. The African Union (AU) seems to be shifting strategy regarding its peacekeeping missions in 2025. There’s a growing push towards “peace enforcement” missions (European Council on Foreign Relations). This approach involves more robust military action, deploying forces of 4,000–5,000 troops to actively combat armed groups. It marks a departure from traditional UN peacekeeping, which often focuses on monitoring ceasefires rather than direct confrontation.

However, achieving peace through negotiation has proven difficult, particularly between states. Data collected by Swisspeace shows a stark reality: between 1989 and 2019, only a tiny fraction (1.6%) of negotiations between African states resulted in actual ceasefires (Swisspeace). This incredibly low success rate highlights the deep challenges involved in resolving conflicts at the state level. Interestingly, negotiations involving non-state actors saw comparatively better outcomes.

Some experts caution against an over-reliance on military solutions. Analysts at the European Council on Foreign Relations argue that peace enforcement can risk worsening conflicts and displacement (European Council on Foreign Relations). Instead, they emphasize the importance of local dialogue. Building peace from the ground up, involving communities directly affected by violence, might be more sustainable than top-down military interventions. Therefore, finding the right balance between security measures and community-based peacebuilding remains a critical challenge for AU peacekeeping missions 2025 and beyond.

The Human Cost: Displacement and Suffering

Amidst the political maneuvering and strategic debates, the human cost of these conflicts is staggering. In Goma, the immediate aftermath of the M23 takeover saw over 34,000 displaced people crammed into Internally Displaced Persons (IDP) camps (Amani Africa). Critical infrastructure was destroyed, making survival even harder for those who lost everything. The sheer scale of suffering demands urgent attention.

Recognizing the severity, the UN Human Rights Council has established a fact-finding mission (Amani Africa). This mission will investigate human rights abuses specifically in North and South Kivu provinces, the epicenters of the violence in eastern DRC. Similarly, in the Central African Republic, the humanitarian situation remains dire. An astonishing 60% of the population depends on aid to survive (Council on Foreign Relations). Furthermore, violence linked to the Wagner Group is reportedly making food insecurity worse, adding to the people’s hardship.

For those in the diaspora with roots in these regions, news of displacement camps, destroyed homes, and reliance on aid is heartbreaking. It underscores the urgent need for effective peace solutions that prioritize the safety and well-being of civilians caught in the crossfire. Ultimately, the success of any peace process must be measured by its impact on the daily lives of ordinary people.

Navigating the Path to Peace in 2025

The landscape of peace and conflict in Africa in 2025 is complex and challenging. While the recommitment of armed groups in CAR offers a sliver of hope, the devastating M23 offensive in DRC highlights the fragility of progress. Regional tensions, the role of external actors like Rwanda, Uganda, and the Wagner Group, and debates over the best peacekeeping strategies all add layers of difficulty.

Statistical trends show that achieving lasting agreements, especially between states, is historically tough. Yet, the higher success rate in non-state conflict negotiations suggests that dialogue, perhaps at more local levels, can yield results. However, the immense human suffering – the displacement, the loss of life, the dependence on aid – cannot be ignored. For the African diaspora and observers worldwide, supporting efforts that lead to genuine, sustainable peace and alleviate the suffering of our people on the continent remains paramount. The road ahead is uncertain, but the search for peace continues.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Darius Spearman is a professor of Black Studies at San Diego City College, where he has been teaching since 2007. He is the author of several books, including Between The Color Lines: A History of African Americans on the California Frontier Through 1890. You can visit Darius online at africanelements.org.