Somalia’s Exports: Navigating Climate & Conflict

By Darius Spearman (africanelements)

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Impact of climate change and armed conflict on Somalia’s exports 1995-2025

Somalia, a nation rich in resilience and culture, faces a harsh reality. Its economy, primarily what it sells to other countries, is caught between two powerful forces: a changing climate and ongoing conflict. For our brothers and sisters in Somalia, this isn’t just about numbers; it’s about daily survival and the future of their homeland. We need to understand how these challenges affect their ability to trade and thrive.

The Double-Edged Sword: Charcoal trade, Somalia, Al-Shabaab

The charcoal trade in Somalia is a complex issue with deep roots. While it provides income for some, it’s essentially an illegal operation that fuels conflict and harms the environment. Imagine, between 2011 and 2017 alone, a staggering 8.2 million trees were cut down for charcoal (Somalia needs its trees to restore landscapes and livelihoods; Somalia calls for international cooperation to stop illegal charcoal trade). This massive deforestation leads to soil erosion and loss of biodiversity, making the land harder to live on and farm. Some reports indicate that up to 100,000 trees are felled annually to produce 240,000 tons of charcoal, showing the devastating scale of this trade (“Charcoal and Somalia’s Environment: A Looming Crisis“). Consequently, the very land our people depend on is being stripped away.

This destructive trade is a major money-maker for armed groups like Al-Shabaab. They control ports and tax the charcoal trade, using the profits to fund their military operations (Climate Change, Charcoal Trade and Armed Conflict in Somalia; Fueling the Flames: How Armed Conflicts and Climate Change Shape the Charcoal Trade in Somalia). Charcoal has become Somalia’s second-largest export, generating $150–$200 million each year for these groups (Somalia needs its trees to restore landscapes and livelihoods). The primary markets for this illegal charcoal are often Gulf states, driven by high demand (Climate Change, Charcoal Trade and Armed Conflict in Somalia). In fact, Al-Shabaab has reportedly imposed a 20% tax on these exports, tightening its grip on this lucrative, yet devastating, industry (“Al-Shabaab’s Charcoal Tax Generates Millions for Islamist Insurgents“). Therefore, international demand indirectly fuels instability and environmental ruin in Somalia.

When the Rains Fail: Somalia drought livestock exports

Climate change is hitting Somalia hard, particularly through devastating droughts and floods. These extreme weather events wreck the agricultural and livestock sectors, the lifeblood of Somalia’s economy. Agriculture makes up about 75% of the country’s GDP and a massive 93% of its export earnings (Somalia Climate Fact Sheet). This is a crisis for a nation where over 70% of the people depend on farming and herding for their livelihoods (“Somalia’s Agricultural Sector: Stability Amid Chaos“). Rising temperatures don’t help either; for every 1°C increase, crop productivity can drop by 11.6% (Somalia Climate Fact Sheet). Thus, the changing climate directly threatens food security and economic stability for millions of Somalis.

The numbers paint a grim picture. The 2017 drought alone caused $71 million in losses to major crops. More recently, the severe drought from 2020 to 2023 led to vast numbers of livestock deaths and forced 1.3 million people from their homes (Somalia Climate Fact Sheet; Fighting Climate Change in Somalia’s Conflict Zones). Pastoralists, who are the backbone of the livestock industry, reported losing 50–70% of their animals during these recent droughts (Climate change and conflict threaten Somali herders). Considering livestock can account for 40-60% of Somalia’s GDP (“Economic Analysis of Somalia: Livestock and Trade Challenges,” as referenced in supplemental content, general link Somalia’s Agricultural Sector: Stability Amid Chaos used), these losses are catastrophic for families and the national economy alike. Ultimately, our people are bearing the brunt of a climate crisis they did little to create.

Conflict’s Long Shadow on Somali deforestation and export economy

Years of conflict have cast a long, dark shadow over Somalia. Since the collapse of the central government in 1991, the country has struggled with instability. This has made it harder to manage resources, respond to climate shocks, and build a stable economy. Unregulated exploitation of communal lands has led to widespread deforestation and sparked conflicts between communities fighting over scarce resources like water and grazing land (Climate Change, Charcoal Trade and Armed Conflict in Somalia; Fueling the Flames: How Armed Conflicts and Climate Change Shape the Charcoal Trade in Somalia). Indeed, the lack of strong governance makes protecting the environment and the people who depend on it difficult.

Armed groups like Al-Shabaab often make things worse. They are known to restrict humanitarian aid from reaching those most in need and have even destroyed water infrastructure in areas already suffering from climate change impacts, deepening food insecurity (Fighting Climate Change in Somalia’s Conflict Zones). This constant instability also directly hits the country’s ability to trade. Between 2000 and 2017, internal conflicts in some regions caused a 30–50% drop in crop and livestock exports (Examining the confluence of climate change and conflicts on agricultural and livestock exports in Somalia). Therefore, peace and stability are crucial for Somalia to manage its resources sustainably and build a resilient export economy.

Somalia’s export GDP climate: Can Aid Break the Cycle?

Despite the immense challenges, there are efforts to help Somalia. International and local initiatives are working to lessen the impacts of climate change and conflict. For instance, the UN Environment Programme’s PROSCAL initiative aims to promote solar energy and reforestation (Somalia | UNEP). This program also trains communities to use kilns that produce charcoal with 40% less wood, reducing environmental impact (“PROSCAL’s Role in Combating Deforestation in the Horn of Africa“). Another example is the EU-funded Deegan Bile projects, which try to combine climate resilience with conflict resolution at the community level (Tackling Climate Change and Conflict in South-central Somalia). These projects empower local leaders and encourage them to invest in drought-tolerant farming. However, these positive steps face significant hurdles.

The PROSCAL initiative, for all its good intentions, struggles to make headway against the robust, entrenched charcoal trade networks (Somalia | UNEP). Similarly, while impactful locally, the Deegan Bile projects lack the funding needed to be scaled up nationwide and truly make a widespread difference (Tackling Climate Change and Conflict in South-central Somalia). The Somali federal government officially banned charcoal exports back in 2012 to try and cut off funding to groups like Al-Shabaab. Yet, Al-Shabaab continues to illegally export around 250,000 tons of charcoal every year from ports they control (Somalia needs its trees to restore landscapes and livelihoods; Somalia calls for international cooperation to stop illegal charcoal trade). Thus, overcoming these structural challenges requires more than aid; it needs a concerted effort to improve governance and security.

Risky Business: Somalia climate conflict exports on the Rise?

It might seem surprising, but Somalia’s total export values have actually grown in recent years. They went from $1.18 billion in 2020 to $2.09 billion in 2023 (Somalia Exports 1960-2025). Two key sectors: livestock, the economy’s traditional backbone, and, alarmingly, the illegal charcoal trade, are the primary drivers of growth. While any economic growth can seem positive on the surface, relying on such volatile and destructive sectors carries huge long-term risks for the Somali people and their environment in the case of charcoal. Furthermore, this situation highlights the desperation and lack of alternatives for many.

Charcoal, as mentioned, remains the second-largest export, bringing in an estimated $150–$200 million annually, primarily for armed groups (Somalia needs its trees to restore landscapes and livelihoods). One study even found that charcoal revenue makes up about 8% of Somalia’s total GDP, showing how deeply intertwined this illegal trade is with both local economies and criminal networks (“Economic Impacts of Somalia’s Illegal Charcoal Exports,” specific study findings noted in supplemental analysis). Meanwhile, the vital livestock sector faces its own serious challenges. Exports are often restricted due to animal disease outbreaks and the lack of adequate veterinary infrastructure, which limits the country’s ability to diversify its income sources and tap into more stable markets (Trade and infrastructure development in Somalia). Consequently, Somalia’s export economy is walking a tightrope, vulnerable to environmental degradation and ongoing conflict.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Darius Spearman has been a professor of Black Studies at San Diego City College since 2007. He is the author of several books, including Between The Color Lines: A History of African Americans on the California Frontier Through 1890. You can visit Darius online at africanelements.org.