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Download AudioEthiopia Tigray Conflict 2025: Eritrean Threats & Red Sea Access
Ethiopia Tigray war tensions rise.
By Darius Spearman (africanelements)
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Renewed TPLF TIA Clashes Spark Fear
The fragile peace in Ethiopia’s Tigray region seems shattered once again. Recent events threaten to plunge the area back into the chaos of civil war, drawing in neighboring Eritrea and reigniting old hostilities. On March 11, 2025, forces linked to the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) launched attacks against the Tigray Interim Administration (TIA), which is backed by Ethiopia’s federal government. These forces reportedly seized control of key locations like Mekelle, the regional capital, and Ad Gudan (Conflict in Ethiopia | Global Conflict Tracker; Africa File, March 13, 2025). Understandably, this sudden escalation has caused widespread disruption, displacing thousands of civilians already scarred by previous conflict.
Reports from different sources paint conflicting pictures of the events. Eritrean media highlighted clashes, while Ethiopian sources described the TPLF’s actions as violent takeovers of TIA offices, including the detention of officials. Regardless of the specific narrative, the outcome is clear: instability has returned to Tigray. For the people on the ground, many of whom are our brothers and sisters, this means renewed fear, uncertainty, and the potential for more suffering. Furthermore, Europe has taken notice, issuing travel advisories and warning its citizens to prepare for worsening conditions, signaling the gravity of the situation (Conflict in Ethiopia | Global Conflict Tracker; Africa File, March 13, 2025).
Why the Pretoria Agreement Failure Fuels War
The current instability isn’t happening in a vacuum; it’s deeply connected to the failures of the 2022 Pretoria Agreement. This peace deal, signed in November 2022, was supposed to end the brutal two-year civil war between the Ethiopian federal government and the TPLF. Its main goals included the disarmament of TPLF forces, restoring federal authority in Tigray, allowing humanitarian aid access, and ensuring the withdrawal of Eritrean troops who had fought alongside Ethiopian forces (Conflict in Ethiopia | Global Conflict Tracker; Africa File Special Edition: Tigray Threatens to Spark the Next Eritrean-Ethiopian War). While the agreement brought a halt to major fighting, its implementation has been shaky at best.
Key parts of the deal remain unfulfilled, creating fertile ground for mistrust and renewed conflict. The TPLF’s disarmament process has been incomplete and contested. Critically, Eritrean troops, who were not signatories to the agreement, never fully withdrew from Tigrayan territory, maintaining a threatening presence. Unresolved territorial disputes, particularly concerning Western Tigray, also continue to simmer. Moreover, the TPLF feels politically sidelined; its attempt to be reinstated as a legitimate political party was denied in August 2024, which it views as a violation of the Pretoria terms (Africa File Special Edition: Tigray Threatens to Spark the Next Eritrean-Ethiopian War; Tigray People’s Liberation Front – Wikipedia). These failures have eroded confidence in the peace process, ultimately leading to the recent TPLF attacks on the TIA, which the TPLF perceives as merely an instrument of the federal government rather than a neutral administrator (Conflict in Ethiopia | Global Conflict Tracker; Africa File, March 13, 2025).
Key Terms: TPLF vs. TIA
TPLF (Tigray People’s Liberation Front): A political party that once dominated Ethiopian politics (1991-2018). Originally Marxist-Leninist, it led the ruling EPRDF coalition. Its power concentration led to resentment among other ethnic groups. After losing federal influence under PM Abiy Ahmed, it retreated to Tigray, leading to the 2020-2022 war. The war weakened it, causing internal splits post-Pretoria Agreement (Tigray People’s Liberation Front – Wikipedia; Experts react: Understanding the conflict in Tigray – Atlantic Council; Africa File Special Edition).
TIA (Tigray Interim Administration): A federally appointed government set up in Tigray in 2023 after the Pretoria Agreement. Led by former TPLF figure Getachew Reda, it’s meant to manage the region until a referendum. However, the TPLF views it as illegitimate and biased towards the federal government, leading to the March 2025 clashes (Africa File Special Edition; Conflict in Ethiopia | Global Conflict Tracker).
Systemic Roots: Lingering Tigray War Trauma
The current crisis builds on deep, unhealed wounds from the recent past. The Tigray War, which raged from 2020 to 2022, was devastating. It caused one of the largest displacement crises globally at the time, forcing 5.1 million Ethiopians from their homes in 2021 alone. The human cost was staggering, with estimates suggesting around 600,000 deaths due to fighting, famine, and lack of healthcare (Conflict in Ethiopia | Global Conflict Tracker). This conflict left Tigray’s infrastructure shattered and its people traumatized. For many in the diaspora watching from afar, the scale of the destruction and loss of Black lives was heart-wrenching.
Beyond the immediate war, historical tensions play a significant role. Ethiopia’s status as a landlocked country since Eritrea gained independence in 1993 has been a persistent source of friction. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s push to secure access to the Red Sea is seen by Eritrea as a direct threat to its sovereignty and economic stability. Consequently, this echoes the tensions that led to the bloody Badme War between the two nations from 1998 to 2000, a conflict rooted in colonial-era border disputes that cost over 100,000 lives and left a legacy of deep mistrust (Conflict in Ethiopia | Global Conflict Tracker; Eritrean–Ethiopian War – Wikipedia). The quest for sea access remains a critical driver of regional politics.
Devastating Human Cost of the Tigray War (2020-2022)
Eritrea Ethiopia Tensions & The Red Sea Conflict
The resurgence of the TPLF directly impacts the tense relationship between Ethiopia and Eritrea. Eritrea, which borders Tigray to the north, views a strong TPLF as a threat. During the 2020-2022 war, Eritrea intervened militarily alongside Ethiopia, largely to crush the TPLF, its long-time adversary. Now, with the TPLF seemingly reasserting itself, Eritrea is likely watching with alarm (Africa File, March 13, 2025). Any perceived TPLF dominance in Tigray could provoke a reaction from Asmara, potentially drawing Eritrea back into direct conflict.
Compounding these tensions is Ethiopia’s ongoing quest for reliable access to the Red Sea. Being landlocked severely hampers Ethiopia’s economy, forcing reliance on ports in neighboring countries like Djibouti. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has made securing sea access a national priority. Ethiopia’s 2024 preliminary agreement with Somaliland, a breakaway region of Somalia, to potentially lease coastline for a port and naval base, sent shockwaves through the region (Conflict in Ethiopia | Global Conflict Tracker). Eritrea, whose own economy relies heavily on its ports, sees Ethiopia’s move as undermining its regional influence and potentially its security. Somalia also vehemently opposes the deal, viewing it as a violation of its sovereignty. Therefore, the Red Sea access issue adds another dangerous layer to the Ethiopia-Eritrea dynamic.
Red Sea Access: Ethiopia’s Need & Eritrea’s Fear
As a landlocked nation, Ethiopia seeks independent port access to reduce reliance on neighbors (like Djibouti) and boost its economy. The 2024 MoU with Somaliland is a key part of this strategy.
Eritrea fears losing economic leverage if Ethiopia gains alternative sea access. Its Red Sea ports are vital. Ethiopian deals with Somaliland are seen as direct economic and geopolitical threats.
Geopolitical Chessboard: Proxy Fights and Neighbors
The conflict dynamics extend beyond Ethiopia and Eritrea, involving a complex web of regional alliances and rivalries. Eritrea has reportedly strengthened ties with anti-Ethiopian factions, seeking to counter Addis Ababa’s influence. Conversely, Ethiopia is said to be hosting Eritrean opposition groups on its soil (Africa File, March 13, 2025; Eritrean–Ethiopian War – Wikipedia). This use of proxy forces mirrors historical patterns in the Horn of Africa, where states often support rebel groups in neighboring countries to destabilize rivals. Such actions significantly increase the risk of miscalculation and wider conflict.
Instability in neighboring countries further complicates the situation. Conflicts in Sudan and South Sudan, along with tensions in Somalia, create a volatile regional environment where conflicts can easily spill across borders. During the 2020-2022 Tigray War, Sudan reportedly provided support to TPLF militants, partly due to its own border disputes with Ethiopia, particularly over the fertile Al Fashaga region (Conflict in Ethiopia | Global Conflict Tracker). Likewise, Somalia’s strong opposition to the Ethiopia-Somaliland MoU adds another potential flashpoint. This interconnectedness means that the renewed fighting in Tigray could have far-reaching consequences, potentially destabilizing an already fragile region and impacting countless lives across the African continent and within the diaspora.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Darius Spearman is a professor of Black Studies at San Diego City College, where he has been teaching since 2007. He is the author of several books, including Between The Color Lines: A History of African Americans on the California Frontier Through 1890. You can visit Darius online at africanelements.org.
