Sahel Split from ECOWAS Threatens West African Stability and Democracy

By Darius Spearman (africanelements)

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ECOWAS Sahel Split: A Big Change in West African Politics

Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger’s decision to exit the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) is a huge moment in West African politics. This move might upset the region’s stability, posing big challenges to democracy and security. The effects of this decision stretch beyond the Sahel nations, possibly altering West Africa’s political landscape.

Economic Effects: A Hit to Regional Unity

The economic fallout of the Sahel leaving ECOWAS is significant and wide-reaching. New tariff barriers could disrupt long-established trade patterns and economic links. Landlocked Sahel countries might suffer the most, facing higher import prices and less competitive exports.

Sahelian imports will cost more without easy access to ports like Cotonou, Lomé, Abidjan, and Tema. Price increases will impact local economies, affecting consumer goods and essential items. Sahelian exports, such as onions and gold, might lose their competitive edge globally due to increased tariffs (Leaving ECOWAS Will Have Catastrophic Consequences for the Sahel).

This economic setback might boost informal trade, especially along the open borders between Niger and Nigeria. As formal trade channels tighten, smuggling networks could thrive, weakening economic stability and governance (Leaving ECOWAS Will Have Catastrophic Consequences for the Sahel).

Sahel States Leave ECOWAS: Security Concerns

The security consequences of the Sahel split are equally alarming. The move puts years of cooperative efforts at risk, especially against growing jihadist threats. With Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger leaving, free movement and security cooperation face disruption (Ecowas bloc extends six-month grace period for departing Sahel states).

This break in unity gives external powers, like Russia, a chance to grow their influence. Russia’s model might appeal to the Sahel, potentially hurting democratic institutions and increasing tensions (ECOWAS Split Spells Trouble for Democracy in West Africa).

The security gap left by this decision might increase jihadist activities beyond the Sahel, reaching coastal West African states. The lack of coordinated efforts and information sharing among former ECOWAS members could embolden extremist groups (Sahel Coup Regime’s Split from ECOWAS Risks Instability in Coastal West Africa).

West Africa Regional Stability: Turbulent Times

1. 2020-2023: Military coups hit Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, and Guinea, leading to ECOWAS suspensions and sanctions.
2. 2022-2023: France pulls out troops from Sahel states due to rising pressure.
3. July 2023: A coup in Niger worsens ties with ECOWAS.
4. September 2023: Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger form the Alliance of Sahel States (AES).
5. December 2023: AES confirms its final decision to exit ECOWAS.
6. December 20, 2024: ECOWAS grants a six-month grace period for the Sahel nations.
7. January 2025: ECOWAS keeps its doors open for the three nations during the grace period (ECOWAS Split Spells Trouble for Democracy in West Africa).

The Sahel Region: Geography and Cultural Diversity

The Sahel stretches from the Atlantic Ocean to the Red Sea, acting as a vast transitional zone between the Sahara Desert and the fertile lands to the south. This expansive region spans countries like Senegal, Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Nigeria, Chad, Sudan, and Eritrea (The Sahel Region – Students of History).

This semi-arid area experiences periodic rainfall, supporting grasslands, savannas, and scattered trees. Consequently, the climate shapes the livelihoods of its inhabitants.

The Sahel has been a hub of cultural exchange and trade throughout history. Diverse ethnic groups have lived here, including the Hausa, Fulani, Tuareg, and Songhai.

Moreover, the region witnessed the rise of significant empires like the Ghana, Mali, and Songhai empires. These empires fostered trade, education, and the spread of Islam.

What is ECOWAS?

ECOWAS: The Economic Community of West African States is a union of fifteen countries in West Africa. It aims to promote economic integration and collective self-sufficiency by creating a single large trade bloc and building a full economic and trading union (Economic Community of West African States – Wikipedia).

Tariff Barriers and Economic Challenges

Tariff barriers are taxes placed on imported goods. They raise the cost of these goods, making them more expensive than local products.

These tariffs aim to protect domestic industries by encouraging consumers to buy locally produced items (Trade Barriers in International Trade: Tariffs and More – IncoDocs).

However, reintroducing tariff barriers threatens to disrupt trade in the Sahel. Increased import costs will affect everything from consumer goods to essential commodities.

Furthermore, Sahelian exports like onions, fish, gold, and uranium may lose competitiveness due to higher tariffs and transportation costs.

The Rise of Informal Trade and Smuggling Networks

As formal trade becomes more restrictive, informal cross-border trade and smuggling will likely increase. These activities already thrive in West Africa.

Informal trade involves goods moving unofficially across borders, often due to different economic policies between neighboring countries (Informality, Trade Policies and Smuggling in West Africa Summary).

Smuggling occurs when goods are imported legally into low-tax countries and then re-exported unofficially to countries with higher duties.

This surge in informal trade and smuggling may undermine economic stability and governance in the region.

External Influences and the Security Vacuum

The security vacuum created by reduced regional cooperation presents an opportunity for external powers to expand their influence.

Besides Russia, other nations like France, the European Union, and the United States have significant interests in the Sahel (Africa File, November 2024: Salafi-Jihadi Areas of Operation in the Sahel).

These powers may provide military assistance, economic aid, and support for regional security initiatives.

However, the withdrawal of foreign troops and a lack of effective governance can allow extremist groups to gain ground.

Moreover, the presence of Salafi-jihadi groups like Jama’at Nusrat al Islam wa al Muslimeen (JNIM), and the Islamic State’s Sahel Province (ISSP) has expanded in the region (Africa File, November 2024: Salafi-Jihadi Areas of Operation in the Sahel).

The security vacuum and state incapacity further contribute to instability and the potential for increased jihadist activities.

ECOWAS Economic Effects: Beyond the Sahel

This split affects more than just the Sahel. ECOWAS might lose its strength in global trade talks. It could also scare off foreign investment since investors like stable markets.

The exit of the Sahel states could disturb supply chains in West Africa, impacting different businesses. Economic isolation could increase poverty and joblessness, raising chances for unrest.

Sahel Security Concerns: A Volatile Situation

The Sahel was already unstable before this split. Now, with less regional cooperation, security threats grow more complex. The Sahel serves as a barrier between sub-Saharan Africa and the Maghreb. Its upheaval could open pathways for illegal activities like arms trafficking.

The French troop withdrawal and reduced peacekeeping may strengthen non-state powers. This might lead to regions governed by extremist groups, making the area’s security situation even tougher.

The Future of West African Unity

The Sahel countries leaving ECOWAS is a significant change in West African politics. It questions the basis of regional cooperation and economic integration developed over the years. The economic, security, and political impacts are significant and challenging, with the potential to reshape West Africa.

With the grace period ongoing, the world watches closely. The stability of West African unity is on the line, with consequences that could reach beyond Africa. The upcoming months will be key in seeing whether this division will lead to building new bridges or start a fragmented era in West African relations.

FAQ

Q: What recent decision did Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger make regarding ECOWAS?
A: They decided to withdraw from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), marking a significant moment in West African politics.

Q: What are the potential economic ramifications of this split?
A: The split could lead to the reintroduction of tariff barriers, disrupting trade patterns and increasing costs for imports and exports, particularly affecting landlocked Sahelian countries.

Q: How might this withdrawal affect regional security?
A: It threatens to undermine cooperative efforts to combat jihadist activities, potentially leading to increased extremist activity in the region and diminished security cooperation.

Q: What opportunities could arise from this fracture in ECOWAS?
A: External powers, notably Russia, may seek to expand their influence in the Sahel, which could exacerbate tensions and undermine democratic institutions.

Q: What is at stake for West African unity?
A: The future of regional cooperation could be jeopardized, with significant economic, security, and political implications that may reshape the geopolitical landscape of West Africa.

Q: What is ECOWAS’s response to this decision?
A: ECOWAS has extended a six-month grace period for the departing Sahel states, maintaining an open-door policy to encourage their return.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Darius Spearman is a professor of Black Studies at San Diego City College, where he has been teaching since 2007. He is the author of several books, including Between The Color Lines: A History of African Americans on the California Frontier Through 1890. You can visit Darius online at africanelements.org.